This paper examines causes of banking crises. In particular, we try to explain why banks expand credits rapidly before the crises. We also seek for appropriate recapitalization policy to cope with a systemic banking crisis. To serve these purposes, we construct an agent-based simulation model...

Consider a simple world populated with two kinds of individuals, those who work and create wealth (peasants) and those who survive by taking the property of others (bandits). The presence of bandits creates an incentive for peasants to seek protection, to defend their property. But protection is...

Recent policy proposals call for setting up a benchmark indexed bond market to prevent "Sudden Stops". This paper analyzes the macroeconomic implications of these bonds using a general equilibrium model of a small open economy with financial frictions. In the absence of indexed bonds, negative...

Scientists and epistemologists agree that a scientific law must be relatively simple and not contradicted by the available evidence. We propose and test one such law pertaining to international economics, the triple-parity law. It integrates three well-known equilibrium conditions, which are...

Many have questioned the empirical relevance of the Calvo-Yun model. This paper appends three widely-studied macroeconomic models (Calvo-Yun, Hybrid and Svensson) with forward rate curves. We back out from observations on the yield curve the underlying macroeconomic model that most closely...

The Fed closely monitors the stock market and the stock market continuously forms expectations about the Fed decisions. What does this imply for the relation between the fed funds rate and the S&P500? We find that the answer depends on the conditions prevailing on the financial market. During...

Many empirical studies have analyzed the interations between the stock market and aggregate economic activity by examining either their short run or long run relationships, as the time series methodologies employed (cointegration analysis) may separate out just two time scales in economic time...

This paper examines a recent shift in the dynamics of the term structure and interest rate risk. We first use standard yield-spread regressions to document such a shift in the U.S. in the mid-1980s. Over the pre- and post-shift subsamples, we then estimate dynamic, affine, no-arbitrage models,...

This paper studies the role of credit market development in an economy with credit frictions. I examine how the provision of credit in connection with collateral assets affects economic performance and the business cycle. In the framework of an economy in which credit constraints arise because...

This paper estimates a sticky-price DSGE model with a financial accelerator to assess the importance of financial frictions in the amplification and propagation of the effects of transitory shocks. Structural parameters of two models, one with and one without a financial accelerator, are...