If strong and persistent misalignments of the exchange rate are caused by non-fundamental influences, such that a return to equilibrium is hampered by a coordination failure among fundamentals-based traders, then central bank intervention may act as a coordinating signal, encouraging stabilizing...

We examine out of sample predictive power of real time monetary models with nonlinear adjustment in forecast errors for the Pound Sterling/US Dollar exchange rates. Real time revisions of U.K. and U.S. monetary aggregates and output are significant. By studying recursive out of sample forecast...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how heterogeneous behaviors of agents influence the exchange rates dynamic in the short and long terms. We examine how agents use the information and which kind of information, in order to take theirs decisions to form an expectation of the exchange rate....

A pervasive finding of unit roots in macroeconomic data often runs counter to intuition regarding the stochastic nature of the process under consideration. Two econometric techniques have been utilized in an attempt to resolve the finding of unit roots, namely long memory and models that depart...

This paper presents a fully rational general equilibrium model that produces a time-varying exchange rate risk premium and solves the uncovered interest rate parity (U.I.P) puzzle. In this two-country model, agents are characterized by slow-moving external habit preferences similar to Campbell &...

Empirical studies looking for changes over time in exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices generally consider the context of a changing inflation mean to examine this issue. This paper allows for endogeneity in exchange rate movements and proposes a new method to test this hypothesis for...