This paper uses a small, calibrated forward-looking model of the euro-area economy to investigate the implications of incomplete information about potential output for the conduct and the design of monetary policy. Three sets of issues are examined. First, the certainty-equivalent optimal policy...

In this paper we assess the stability of open economy backward looking Phillips curves estimated across two different exchange rate regimes. The time series we deal with come from the simulation of a New-Keynesian hybrid model suited for performing monetary policy analysis. The statistical...

This paper characterizes the optimal long-run rate of inflation, consistent with an occasionally binding zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, in a stochastic New Keynesian sticky-price model calibrated to the U.S. economy. This may serve to inform discussions on the design of an...

We investigate co-movements in inflation dynamics within and across euro area regions and find it important for monetary policy to monitor regional inflation dynamics to enhance the understanding of aggregate inflation. We employ a model where regional inflation dynamics are explained by common...

This paper considers the evidence of “near-rationality†in household inflation expectations, as described by Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (2000), hereafter ADP. According to ADP, the economic incentive to anticipate inflation varies from agent to agent, and as inflation falls, some...

We study the the emergence of multiple equilibria in models with capital and bonds under various monetary and fiscal policies. We show that the presence of capital is indeed another independent source of local and global multiplicites, even under active policies that yield local determinacy. We...

In this paper we analyse the monetary impact of alternative fiscal policy rules using the debt and deficit, both mentioned as measures of fiscal policy performance in the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). We use a New Keynesian model, with distortionary taxation and an appropriately defined...

We formulate a generalized price-setting framework that incorporates staggered contracts of multiple durations and that enables us to directly identify the influences of nominal vs. real rigidities. Using German macroeconomic data over the period 1975Q1 through 1998Q4 to estimate this framework,...

In our dynamic optimizing sticky price model, agents are heterogenous with regard to their assets and their income. Unanticipated inflation redistributes income and wealth. In order to model the wealth distribution, we study a 60-period OLG model with aggregate uncertainty. A positive technology...