This paper investigates the finite-sample behaviour of sovereign credit migration estimators and analyzes the properties of the rating process. Through bootstrap simulations, we compare a discrete multinomial estimator and two continuous hazard rate methods which differ in that one neglects...

In standard static Mean-Variance approach portfolio is presented by one allocation vector optimized in terms of expected returns & variance-covariance (VcV) matrix. Such one-dimensional approach is not suitable for Fixed Income: i) portfolio cannot be described by allocation vector only, and ii)...

In a traditional mean-variance approach a portfolio is represented by the allocation vector optimized in terms of expected returns and variances. Basic assumption is that the allocation vector may only be the driver of a portfolio risk-reward trade-off, while all constituent assets are fully...

A group of developing countries bear high rates of financial dollarisation. Under this circumstance, monetary-policy makers are uncertain about the presence and scale of potentially harmful effects that might appear because of balance sheet mismatches arising from high and unexpected...

Central puzzles in international macroeconomics are why fluctuations of the real exchange rate are so volatile with respect to other macroeconomic variables, and the contradiction of efficient risk-sharing. Several theoretical contributions have evaluated alternative forms of pricing under...

Have interest rates been held “too low†in relation to the natural rate of interest? Economists have lately begun to worry that the cost of capital may have fallen below the worldwide expected return on capital, thereby causing excessive borrowing and allowing financial imbalances to...

Present value calculations require predictions of cash flows both at near and distant future points in time. Such predictions are generally surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may critically depend on assumptions about parameter values as well as the form and stability of the data...

This paper builds on our previous work that used a non linear stochastic dynamic programming problem to solve for the optimal level of phosphorus discharged into a watershed. Typically, there is a trade off between profits from agriculture and environmental damage due to excessive levels of...

We present a multivariate generalization of the simple markov-switching model. We allow for the introduction of several latent processes that have a simple parametric distribution. The matrix-variate bernoulli distribution yields a flexible yet parsimonious pattern of dependence between the...

This paper considers two models to deal with an outcome variable that contains a large fraction of zeros, such as individual expenditures on health care: a sample-selection model and a two-part model. The sample-selection model uses two possibly correlated processes to determine the outcome: a...