Recent work on trend-cycle decompositions for US real GDP yields the following puzzling features: method based on Unobserved Components models, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick-Prescott filter and others yield very different cycles which bears little resemblance to the NBER...

Diba and Grossman (1988) and Hamilton and Whiteman (1985) recommended unit root tests for rational bubbles. They argued that if stock prices are not more explosive than dividends, then it can be concluded that rational bubbles are not present. Evans (1991) demonstrated that these tests will fail...

This paper considers the economic implications of having unit roots in stochastic processes of variables like consumption or GDP. Using a variety of models, we develop indirect tests for unit roots based on sharp distinctions that should arise when the scale variable is either difference...

This paper considers the use of the long-memory, semi-parametric estimators to test unit-root and non-cointegrated processes under fractional alternatives. Critical-point values of the proposed tests are given for different sample sizes. The ADF test is used for comparison purposes. The...

I illustrate the importance of choosing the correct space in empirical applications of spatial econometric models. I consider different spatial weighting matrices in an SAR(1) model -- contiguity matrix, distance based matrix and their variants adjusted for size of each observation. I show...

The paper revisits dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) and proposes a new way in dealing with the limitation of the classical affine models. In particular, this paper expands the flexibility of the DTSMs by applying a fractional Brownian motion as the governing force of the state variable...

We measure the economic capital stock of money implied by the Divisia monetary aggregate service flow, in a manner consistent with asset pricing theory. Based on Barnett’s [4] definition of the economic stock of money, we estimate the expected discounted flow of expenditure on the...

Understanding the value a customer has to a business is a fundamental problem. Accurate valuations are critical for setting appropriate levels of investment for targeted marketing and for the setting of individual customer service levels. Traditionally semi-qualitative methods using results from...