Showing 1 - 10 of 22
The availability of high frequency databases makes possible to understand financial market dynamics and test some of hypothesis brought up by the microstructure theory. In that way, many formulations have been suggested. One of the first proposals to model event based high frequency data has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005132665
This article faces the problem of stock price forecasting based on an integrated approach in which the modeling of high … – is used in order to capture the dynamic that high frequency variables present, and its forecasting function is taken … the results of the forecasting function. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005132674
This paper deals with the analysis of a nonlinear time series model of the effects of advertising. Given the nonlinear nature of the process it is not possible to rely on the asymptotic inference. Furthermore, we can not provide an (asymptotic) pivotal statistic. Our solution is the application...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005706340
We investigate evidence for nonlinear mean reversion in yearly S\&P500 data from 1871 until 2001. We find that up to 1990 there is significant evidence of nonlinear mean reversion. In particular, stock prices are characterized by a persistent process close to the fundamental value. However, when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005706533
In the context of Local Polynomial estimators the global bandwidth parameter takes one of most important roles. There are several methods to get a consistent estimator for it. In particular, starting from the Mean Square Error of Local Polynomial estimators, the “plug-in†method is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537406
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537659
In recent years the computers have shown to be a powerful tool in financial forecasting. Many machine learning …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005342917
This paper examines different multivariate models to evaluate what are the main determinants when doing VaR forecasts for a portfolio of assets. To achieve this goal, we unify past multivariate models by using a general copula framework and we propose many new extensions. We differentiate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005342981
This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial … production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate … linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005345252
This paper uses a modified version of the DSGE model estimated in Smets and Wouters (2003) to generate a prior distribution for a vector autoregression, following the approach in Del Negro and Schorfheide (2003). This DSGE-VAR is fitted to Euro area data on GDP, consumption, investment, nominal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005345303