Recent policy proposals call for setting up a benchmark indexed bond market to prevent "Sudden Stops". This paper analyzes the macroeconomic implications of these bonds using a general equilibrium model of a small open economy with financial frictions. In the absence of indexed bonds, negative...

Scientists and epistemologists agree that a scientific law must be relatively simple and not contradicted by the available evidence. We propose and test one such law pertaining to international economics, the triple-parity law. It integrates three well-known equilibrium conditions, which are...

Many have questioned the empirical relevance of the Calvo-Yun model. This paper appends three widely-studied macroeconomic models (Calvo-Yun, Hybrid and Svensson) with forward rate curves. We back out from observations on the yield curve the underlying macroeconomic model that most closely...

The Fed closely monitors the stock market and the stock market continuously forms expectations about the Fed decisions. What does this imply for the relation between the fed funds rate and the S&P500? We find that the answer depends on the conditions prevailing on the financial market. During...

Many empirical studies have analyzed the interations between the stock market and aggregate economic activity by examining either their short run or long run relationships, as the time series methodologies employed (cointegration analysis) may separate out just two time scales in economic time...

This paper examines a recent shift in the dynamics of the term structure and interest rate risk. We first use standard yield-spread regressions to document such a shift in the U.S. in the mid-1980s. Over the pre- and post-shift subsamples, we then estimate dynamic, affine, no-arbitrage models,...

This paper estimates a sticky-price DSGE model with a financial accelerator to assess the importance of financial frictions in the amplification and propagation of the effects of transitory shocks. Structural parameters of two models, one with and one without a financial accelerator, are...

In this paper we concentrate on the hypothesis that the empirical rejections of the Expectations Theory(ET) of the term structure of interest rates can be caused by improper modelling of expectations. Our starting point is an interesting anomaly found by Campbell-Shiller(1987), when by taking a...