This paper introduces a form of boundedly-rational expectations into an otherwise standard New Keynesian Phillips curve. The representative agent's forecast rule is optimal, conditional on a perceived law of motion for inflation and observed moments of the inflation time series. The perceived...

We examine linear-quadratic (LQ) approximation of stochastic dynamic optimization problems in macroeconomics (and elsewhere), in particular in policy analysis using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. We first define the problem that is solved by a social planner, given that...

Abstract: The literature on the New Phillips Curve (NPC) started off with an analysis of pricing behaviour in economies that are closed and with price and wage contracts that are either of the Calvo or Taylor-style. In the spirit of the Batini, Jackson and Nickell (2000) here we focus on the...

This paper sets out first, to quantify the stabilization gains from commitment in terms of household welfare and second, to examine how commitment to an optimal or approximately optimal rule can be sustained as an equilibrium in which reneging hardly ever occurs. We utilize an influential...

Monetary policy conducted in real time has to take into account the preliminary nature of recent national accounts data. Not only recent data, but also figures dating many years back are potentially subject to revisions. This means that there is a danger that an important part of the central...