This paper examines different multivariate models to evaluate what are the main determinants when doing VaR forecasts for a portfolio of assets. To achieve this goal, we unify past multivariate models by using a general copula framework and we propose many new extensions. We differentiate the...

Qualitative behaviours of small firms are explored to forecast criticalities in the Italian credit market. We build up an evaluation process to integrate quantitative rating practices. Research method: Relevant qualitative factors to estimate the credit risk are empirically investigated by...

The analysis of many complex problems and complex dynamic systems suggests that there are dependencies between high complexity and properties of the underlying structures, as the existence of large grids, non-regularities and inhomogeneous structures and irregular flows of information. These...

We deal with bootstrapping tests for detecting conditional heteroskedasticity in the context of standard and nonstandard ARCH models. We develope parametric and nonparametric bootstrap tests based both on the LM statistic and a neural statistic. The neural tests are designed to approximate an...

We propose a multivariate nonparametric technique for generating reliable historical yield curve scenarios and confidence intervals. The approach is based on a Functional Gradient Descent (FGD) estimation of the conditional mean vector and volatility matrix of a multivariate interest rate...

A notion of forecast quality is defined that is appropriate when returns forecasts are used in a simple investment decision. The relation between the conditional distribution of returns and optimal point forecasts for a risk neutral investor is characterised and it is shown that the conditional...

We develop extensions of the variance-ratio statistic for testing the hypothesis a time series is uncorrelated and investigate their finite-sample performance. The tests employ an estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the sample autocorrelations that is consistent under the null for...

In this paper, we investigate the out-of-sample forecasting ability of a genetic program to approach the dynamic evolution of the Yen/US$ and Pound Sterling/US$ exchange rates, and verify whether the method can beat the random walk model. Later on, we use the predicted values to generate a...