Showing 1 - 10 of 189
This paper uses a modified version of the DSGE model estimated in Smets and Wouters (2003) to generate a prior distribution for a vector autoregression, following the approach in Del Negro and Schorfheide (2003). This DSGE-VAR is fitted to Euro area data on GDP, consumption, investment, nominal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005345303
-term relationship. We finally conclude by comparing the forecasting ability of these two approaches with classical models such as Random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537606
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537788
This paper examines different multivariate models to evaluate what are the main determinants when doing VaR forecasts for a portfolio of assets. To achieve this goal, we unify past multivariate models by using a general copula framework and we propose many new extensions. We differentiate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005342981
state space models obtained by the CCA subspace algorithm, including a density forecasting analysis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005706234
This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial … production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate … linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005345252
In this paper, using recent empirical results regarding the statistical properties of macroeconomic data revisions, we study the effects of data revisions in a general equilibrium framework. We find that the presence of data revisions, or data uncertainty, creates a precautionary motive and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005706560
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005706641
key issue is this: In the literature on developing forecasting models, new models are put together based on the results … variety of exercises designed to answer this question. In particular, we find that real-time data matters for some forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537777
It is common in DSGE models that aim to explain the impact of monetary policy on economic variables to identify prices by assuming lump-sum transfers of money. The consequence of this is that the interest rule in these models must be of the Taylor-rule type. In this paper we explore the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005345082