Abstract: The robust permanent income model discussed in a number of works, see e.g. Hansen et al. (1999, 2002), is reformulated as a linear quadratic tracking problem with a time-varying intercept following a ‘Return to Normality’ model. The results in Tucci (2005), which...

This paper builds upon the work by Tucci and Kendrick (2001) in which the authors develop a quadratic form version of the robust permanent income and pricing model described in Hansen, Sargent and Tallerini (1999). Then using the parameter values given on p. 18 of the HST paper they compute the...

This paper proposes a new method of estimating the Taylor rule with a time-varying implicit inflation target and a time-varying natural rate of interest. The inflation target and the natural rate are modelled as random walks and are estimated using maximum likelihood and the Kalman filter. I...

A high degree of cyclical synchronization between the new EU member states (NMS) from Central and Eastern Europe and the euro area is generally seen as a prerequisite for successful EMU enlargement. We establish stylized facts on economic linkages between NMS and the euro area using dynamic...

This paper studies the behaviour of firm entry and exit in response to macroeconomic shocks. We formulate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with an endogenous number of producers. From the calibrated model, we derive a minimum set of robust sign restrictions to identify four kinds...

This paper analyses the response of seven of the newly acceded countries (NACs)to EU supply and monetary shocks. A typical NAC perceives an EU technology disturbance as a positive supply shock and an EU monetary expansion as a negative demand shock. When we split the seven countries into two...