Equity market crashes or booms are extreme realizations of the underlying return distribution. This paper questions whether booms are more or less likely than crashes and whether emerging markets crash more frequently than developed equity markets. We apply Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to...

Recent research has shown the importance of time horizons in models of learning in finance. The dynamics of how agents adjust to believe that the world around them is stationary may be just as crucial in the convergence to a rational-expectations equilibrium as getting parameters and model...

Various studies of asset markets have shown that traders are capable of learning and transmitting information through prices in many situations. In this paper we replace human traders with intelligent software agents in a series of simulated markets. Using these simple learning agents, we are...

This paper uses an agent based financial market calibrated to aggregate data. It shows how these markets are able to magnify the volatility of fundamentals, and to create time series with persistent volatility. The mechanism for this persistence is explored using several of the time series...