In this paper, we examine the cost of insurance against model uncertainty for the Euro area considering four alternative reference models, all of which are used for policy-analysis at the ECB. We find that maximal insurance across this model range in terms of a Minimax policy comes at moderate...

When a central bank operates with multiple, non-nested models of the economy, generally no single policy rule will be optimal across within alternate models. In this context, Levin and Williams (2003) introduce the notion of fault tolerance of policy rules, that is, the performance of policy...

We study the effects of optimized monetary policy in a semi-structural, estimated small open economy in situations where the policymaker has either complete or less than complete confidence in the model being free from misspecification errors. We use the robust control techniques developed by...

Papers estimating the reaction function of the Bundesbank generally find that ist monetary policy from the 1970s to 1998 can well be captured by a standard Taylor rule according to which the central bank responds to the output gap and to deviations of inflation from target, but not to monetary...

We study the the emergence of multiple equilibria in models with capital and bonds under various monetary and fiscal policies. We show that the presence of capital is indeed another independent source of local and global multiplicites, even under active policies that yield local determinacy. We...

I introduce a method to transform a T-map when agents form expectations using a misspecified learning mechanism inconsistent with a structural equation of a multivariate economic model. By transforming the perceived law of motion (PLM) into a the form of a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR)...

The monetary policy literature has recently devoted considerable attention to Taylor-type rules, in which the interest rate set by the central bank depends on measures of inflation and aggregate output. We show that if policy-makers attempt to choose the optimal rule within a Taylor-type...

We argue that inflation-targeting strategy in practice can be approximated with the interest rate responding to the unchanged-interest-rate forecast of inflation. We develop a method to derive unchanged-interest-rate forecasts in forward-looking models and evaluate the performance of the policy...

As recent research has shown one of the most important impediments to a successful conduct of monetary policy arises from the measurement error associated with output and inflation observations and the uncertainty regarding estimates of unobservables such as potential output. (See, for example,...