Papers on international business cycles have documented spurious welfare reversals: incomplete markets produce a higher level of welfare than the complete market. This paper first demonstrates how conventional linearization, as used in King, Plosser, and Rebelo (1988), can generate approximation...

Agent-based modeling is emerging as a promising new tool for constructing spatially detailed models of land use. Agent-based models offer several advantages over previously used techniques, since they are well suited for modeling complex phenomenon. Several important sources of complexity...

This paper uses computational techniques to explore the relationship between trade and war. It develops and simulates an agent-based model in which trade and military conflict are emergent processes within a system of states. The model explores different initial configurations, and the economic...

This paper uses real-time data and forecasts provided in historical briefing documents prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee of the United States Federal Reserve to estimate evolving central bank perceptions of the natural rate of unemployment. The briefing documents, informally known...

Inflation equals the product of two terms: the fraction of items with price changes (whose volatility figures prominently in state-dependent pricing models), and the average size of those price changes (the only source of fluctuations in time-dependent pricing models). The variance of inflation...