The objective of this paper is to calculate, model, and forecast realized volatility using high-frequency stock-market index data. The approach differs from existing ones in several ways. First, it is shown that the decay of the serial dependence of high-frequency returns on the sampling...

We explore whether forecasting an aggregate variable using information on its disaggregate components can improve the prediction mean squared error over forecasting the disaggregates and aggregating those forecasts, or using only aggregate information in forecasting the aggregate. An implication...

This paper analyzes some asymptotic results for a new estimator of integrated volatility in a continuous-time diffusion process of high frequency data (used in asset pricing finance). The estimator, which is computationally efficient, is based on the quadratic variation of the second order...