Recent empirical work documents substantial disagreement in inflation expectations obtained from survey data. Furthermore, the extent of such disagreement varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation...

This paper documents that inflation forecasts of the Federal Reserve systematically under-predicted inflation before Volker's appointment as Chairman and systematically over-predicted it afterward. It also documents that, under quadratic loss, commercial forecasts have information not contained...

Monetary policy conducted in real time has to take into account the preliminary nature of recent national accounts data. Not only recent data, but also figures dating many years back are potentially subject to revisions. This means that there is a danger that an important part of the central...

This paper sets out first, to quantify the stabilization gains from commitment in terms of household welfare and second, to examine how commitment to an optimal or approximately optimal rule can be sustained as an equilibrium in which reneging hardly ever occurs. We utilize an influential...

We introduce a ''new'' algorithm that can be used to solve stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models. This approach exploits the fact that the equations defining equilibrium can be viewed as set of algebraic equations in the neighborhood of the steady-state. Then a recursive scheme, which...

This paper documents the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian Model for Canadian data. We repeatedly estimate the model over samples of increasing lengths, forecasting out-of-sample one to four quarters ahead at each step. We then compare these forecasts with those arising...

Abstract: This paper studies a simple model of output and inflation in the experimental laboratory. While the Rational Expectations Equilibrium (REE)predicts output and inflation to be white noise processes, output and inflation in experimental sessions display stable cyclical patterns. For...

The recent literature on economic growth and business cycles, such as Helpman and Trajtenberg (1996), Hornstein and Krusell (1996), Jovanovic and Lack (1997), and Andolfatto and MacDonald (1998), shows that the diffusion of new technology is important in accounting for some features of aggregate...