Data in which each observation is a curve occur in many applied problems. This paper explores prediction in time series in which the data is generated by a curve-valued autoregression process. It develops a novel technique, the predictive factor decomposition, for estimation of the...

In this paper, we show how to derive the spectra and cross-spectra of economic times series from an underlying econometric or VAR model. This allows us to conduct a proper frequency analysis of economic and financial variables on a reduced sample of data, without it being ruled out by large...

This paper considers the economic implications of having unit roots in stochastic processes of variables like consumption or GDP. Using a variety of models, we develop indirect tests for unit roots based on sharp distinctions that should arise when the scale variable is either difference...

Papers estimating the reaction function of the Bundesbank generally find that ist monetary policy from the 1970s to 1998 can well be captured by a standard Taylor rule according to which the central bank responds to the output gap and to deviations of inflation from target, but not to monetary...

This paper examines causes of banking crises. In particular, we try to explain why banks expand credits rapidly before the crises. We also seek for appropriate recapitalization policy to cope with a systemic banking crisis. To serve these purposes, we construct an agent-based simulation model...

Policymaking at the Bank of England has provided detailed information on both the decisions of individual members of the Monetary Policy Committee. We consider this decision making process in the context of a model in which inflation forecast targeting is used but there is heterogeneity among...

This paper incorporates heterogeneous agents into a NNS model with nominal inertia. Heterogeneous households are introduced into NNS models to try and reconcile the movements in interest rates, consumption and inflation. The key findings here are that heterogeneity and wage inertia are needed to...

We describe the methods we employ for the generation of possible scenarios of the term structure evolution. The problem is originated by the request of the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance of finding an optimal strategy for the issuance of Public Debt securities. The basic idea is to...