A notion of forecast quality is defined that is appropriate when returns forecasts are used in a simple investment decision. The relation between the conditional distribution of returns and optimal point forecasts for a risk neutral investor is characterised and it is shown that the conditional...

This article analyzes the trade-off between ÏcautionÓ and ÏintensityÓ in the use of the control variable in a one-state one-control dynamic stochastic quadratic linear optimization problem with discount factor. It studies the effects that changes in uncertainty of the control parameter have...

Cosimano (2003) uses the perturbation method to approximate optimal experimentation problems in the neighborhood of the augmented linear regulator problem as formulated by Hansen and Sargent (2004) and Anderson, Hansen, McGratten and Sargent (1966). Cosimano and Gapen (2005) develop a computer...

Three methods have been developed by the authors for solving optimal experimentation problems. David Kendrick (1981, 2002, Ch.10) uses quadratic approximation of the value function and linear approximation of the equation of motion to simulate general optimal experimentation (active learning)...

Effective monitoring of a minimum wage, requires that establishments potentially paying low wages are effectively identified. This paper investigates the identification of establishments paying low wages prior to the introduction of the British National Minimum Wage in 1999, through the...

While the conditional volatility of time series is always dependent of the model specification, the {\\em ex post} or realized volatility series is often constructed on a model-free basis. The common proxies of daily volatility in the literature are the squared daily asset returns and the sum of...