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Testing Near-Rationality Using Detail Survey Data

Palmqvist, Stefan; Bryan, Michael F. - Society for Computational Economics - SCE - 2005

This paper considers the evidence of â€œnear-rationalityâ€ in household inflation expectations, as described by Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (2000), hereafter ADP. According to ADP, the economic incentive to anticipate inflation varies from agent to agent, and as inflation falls, some...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005343008

Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Lansing, Kevin J. - Society for Computational Economics - SCE - 2006

This paper introduces a form of boundedly-rational expectations into an otherwise standard New Keynesian Phillips curve. The representative agent's forecast rule is optimal, conditional on a perceived law of motion for inflation and observed moments of the inflation time series. The perceived...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005132595

In Search of the Natural Rate of Unemployment

Morley, James; King, Thomas - Society for Computational Economics - SCE - 2003

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005345706

Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations

Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan - Society for Computational Economics - SCE - 2006

Recent empirical work documents substantial disagreement in inflation expectations obtained from survey data. Furthermore, the extent of such disagreement varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537424

Inflation Targeting, Learning and Q Volatility in Small Open Economies

McNelis, Paul D.; Lim, Guay - Society for Computational Economics - SCE - 2006

This paper examines the welfare implications of managing asset-price with consumer-price inflation targeting by monetary authorities who have to learn the laws of motion for both inflation rates. Our results show that the Central Bank can reduce the volatility of consumption and asset price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005132636

A Quantitive Assessment of the Qualitative Aspects of Chairman Greenspan's Communications

Bligh, Michelle; Hess, Gregory D. - Society for Computational Economics - SCE - 2006

A manifestation of the Federal Reserve Board's increased transparency has been Chairman Greenspan's method of communication. The purpose of this paper is to establish the positive aspects of his speeches, testimonies and FOMC statements on financial market variables. This analysis is undertaken...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005132637

Central Bank Estimates of the Unemployment Natural Rate

Tinsley, Peter; Kozicki, Sharon - Society for Computational Economics - SCE - 2005

summary measures of the ex ante information of forecasters, reduces model identification issues, and eliminates estimation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005132650

Strong contagion with weak spillovers

Ellison, Martin; Graham, Liam; Vilmunen, Jouko - Society for Computational Economics - SCE - 2005

In this paper, we develop a model which explains why events in one market may trigger similar events in other markets, even though at first sight the markets appear to be only weakly related. We allow for multiple equilibria and learning dynamics in each market, and show that a jump between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005132659

An Estimated DSGE Model for The German Economy

Pytlarczyk, Ernest - Society for Computational Economics - SCE - 2005

studies, accounts for heterogeneity within the euro area. In the estimation we utilize disaggregated information, employing … a strategy for consistent estimation of the currency union model, using information available prior to the adoption of … German economy within EMU, and its Bayesian estimation on the sample 1980:q1- 2003:q4. Moreover, the paper offers: (i) a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005132670

Welfare Maximizing Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules

Kollmann, Robert - Society for Computational Economics - SCE - 2004

This paper studies the welfare effects of monetary and fiscal policy rules, in a dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices. The model features capital accumulation and endogenous labor effort, and exogenous productivity shocks. Government purchases are valued positively by the private...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005132785