The literature on private information as a source of trade is probably most well known via the seminal work by Jean Tirole and Paul Milgrom and Nancy Stokey. We consider an arbitrage opportunity to be the result of the existence of such private information. We are interested to propose a model...

Three methods have been developed by the authors for solving optimal experimentation problems. David Kendrick (1981, 2002, Ch.10) uses quadratic approximation of the value function and linear approximation of the equation of motion to simulate general optimal experimentation (active learning)...

The Use of a Simple Decision Rule in Repeated Oligopoly Games Much interest has been directed towards decision rules and conditions when firms make decisions converging to a non-cooperative Nash equilibrium in repeated oligopoly games. We explore the use of a simple decision rule where firms...

We introduce learning based on genetic algorithms in a principal-agent model of optimal contracting under moral hazard. Applications corresponding to this setting abound in finance (credit under moral hazard), public finance (optimal taxation, information-constrained insurance), development...

Emerging market financial crises are abrupt and dramatic, usually occurring after a period of high output growth, massive capital flows, and a boom in asset markets. This paper develops an equilibrium asset pricing model with informational frictions in which vulnerability and the crisis itself...

This paper studies a general equilibrium economy in which agents have the ability to invest in a risky technology. The investment risk cannot be fully insured with optimal contracts because shocks are private information. We show that the presence of these risks may lead to under-accumulation of...

This paper investigates optimal monetary policy in an economy, in which the output-inflation trade off faced by the central bank is influenced by two important forces: (i) the presence of uncertain and possibly changing parameters, and (ii) private sector expectations regarding the central...

Within the context of an agent-based model, model selection by the economic agents is introduced and investigated. To achieve this, a specific agent, the “economic research instituteâ€, is set up and produces regular forecasts of the economy which are published to the economic agents....