The commercial mortgage-backed security market has experienced rapid growth in recent years, and is now the second most important source of intermediation to the commercial real estate sector. Despite its growing importance, relatively little academic research has questioned the apparent success...

Following the lead of Merton (1974), recent research has focused on the relationship of credit risk to firm value. Although this has usually been done for a single firm, the growth of structured finance, which necessarily involves the correlation between included securities, has spurred interest...

Alvarez and Jermann (2000) show that the constrained efficient allocations of endowment economies with complete markets and limited commitment can be decentralized with endogenous borrowing limits on the Arrow securities. In a model with capital accumulation, aggregate risk and competitive...

The literature on private information as a source of trade is probably most well known via the seminal work by Jean Tirole and Paul Milgrom and Nancy Stokey. We consider an arbitrage opportunity to be the result of the existence of such private information. We are interested to propose a model...

Using monthly data from 1926:01 to 2003:12 for the United States, this paper examines the predictability of real stock prices based on the dividend-price ratio. In particular, we focus on estimating and forecasting a nonlinear exponential smooth autoregressive model (ESTAR). One motivation for...

Present value calculations require predictions of cash flows both at near and distant future points in time. Such predictions are generally surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may critically depend on assumptions about parameter values as well as the form and stability of the data...

We study how well a New Keynesian business cycle model can explain the observed behavior of nominal interest rates. We focus on two puzzles raised in previous literature. First, Donaldson, Johnsen, and Mehra (1990) show that while in the U.S. nominal term structure the interest rates are...