We develop extensions of the variance-ratio statistic for testing the hypothesis a time series is uncorrelated and investigate their finite-sample performance. The tests employ an estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the sample autocorrelations that is consistent under the null for...

Grandmont (1985) found that the parameter space of even the simplest, most classical models are stratified into bifurcation regions. Barnett and He (1999,2002) subsequently found transcritical, codimension-two, and Hopf bifurcation boundaries within the parameter space of the policy-relevant...

In this paper we examine the usefulness of multivariate semi-parametric GARCH models for portfolio selection under a Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint. First, we specify and estimate several alternative multivariate GARCH models for daily returns on the S\&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes. Examining the...

We show that a class of microeconomic behavioral models with interacting agents, introduced by Kirman (1991,1993), can replicate the empirical long-memory properties of the two first conditional moments of financial time series. The essence of these models is that the forecasts and thus the...

Estimation of Default Probabilities is critical to the correct pricing of credit derivatives and determining the appropriate level of reserves to support credit risky activities (Basel II). Given that credit default swaps (CDS) reflect the market consensus on default probability (with a direct...

In this paper, we investigate the out-of-sample forecasting ability of a genetic program to approach the dynamic evolution of the Yen/US$ and Pound Sterling/US$ exchange rates, and verify whether the method can beat the random walk model. Later on, we use the predicted values to generate a...

This paper proposes a new way of modeling and forecasting intraday returns. We decompose the volatility of high frequency asset returns into components that may be easily interpreted and estimated. The conditional variance is expressed as a product of daily, diurnal and stochastic intraday...

The paper considers the question of dominance, in the context of financial markets, of the deterministic unit root processes with a structural break by the bilinear unit root model without such break or vice versa. In the deterministic unit root process breaks are usually interpreted as...