I introduce a method to transform a T-map when agents form expectations using a misspecified learning mechanism inconsistent with a structural equation of a multivariate economic model. By transforming the perceived law of motion (PLM) into a the form of a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR)...

We formulate and estimate a RBC model with structural changes and with bounded rationality, where the economic agents have to learn about the former. This paper investigates whether the agents’ learning process can generate business cycles fluctuations which are empirically plausible....

The monetary policy literature has recently devoted considerable attention to Taylor-type rules, in which the interest rate set by the central bank depends on measures of inflation and aggregate output. We show that if policy-makers attempt to choose the optimal rule within a Taylor-type...

Shifts in the long-run rate of productivity growth--such as those those experienced by the U.S. economy in the 1970s and 1990s--are difficult in real time to distinguish from transitory fluctuations. In this paper, we explore how economists' projections of trend productivity growth gradually...

Cyclical or chaotic competitive equilibria that do not exist under perfect foresight are shown to occur in a decentralized growth model under constant gain adaptive learning. This paper considers an economy populated by boundedly rational households making one-period ahead constant gain adaptive...

Bounded rationality is introduced into a standard growth model by assuming that households form one-period ahead least squares forecasts on production factor prices, and expect that future level of consumption and physical capital will be consistent with the balanced growth path. Under those...

Most studies of optimal monetary policy under learning rely on optimality conditions derived for the case when agents have rational expectations. In this paper, we derive optimal monetary policy in an economy where the Central Bank knows, and makes active use of, the learning algorithm agents...

This paper provides a formal definition of emergence, operative in multi-agent framework and which make sense from both a cognitive and an economics point of view. The first part discuses the ontological and epistemic dimension of emergence and provides a complementary set of definitions....

This paper considers the behavior of the exchange rate in a very simple artificial currency market with two currencies and artificial agents who evolve their forecast rules over time via a genetic algorithm. I consider two simple forecast rules, one linear and the other non-linear. Under the...