In impulse response analysis the construction of intervals for the response at a particular time is a familiar topic. This paper considers the construction of confidence bands for the path of reponses. It investigates the feasibility of procedures based on heuristic optimisation methods for...

The dating of a possible European business cycle has been inconclusive. At this stage, there is no consensus on the existence of such a cycle, or of its periodicity and amplitude, or of the relationship of individual member countries to that cycle. Yet cyclical convergence is the key...

The asymptotic distribution of the QML estimator for GARCH processes, with coefficients possibly equal to zero, is established. This distribution is the projection of a normal vector distribution onto a convex cone. The results are derived under mild conditions which, for important subclasses,...

This paper proposes Lagrange Multiplier based panel unit root tests allowing for structural breaks through simple extensions of existing group mean and combination tests. The proposed tests are more general than those previously suggested. They consider potential breaks in the intercept, in the...

A class of stochastic unit-root bilinear processes, allowing for GARCH-type effects with asymmetries, is studied. The volatility is not bounded away from zero and is minimum for non zero innovations, which are important differences with the standard GARCH. Necessary and sufficient conditions for...

This paper introduces Bayesian inference in a Markov switching partial cointegration model. The partial cointegration allows the cointegration relationships to be switched on and off depending on the regime, unlike conventional cointegration analysis that assumes linear adjustment toward...

The paper proposes a method that solves the non-monotonic power problem of a family of structural changes in mean tests based on an orthonormal series filtering of the error process before estimating variance of the test statistics. This method yields a consistent estimator for the variance...

This paper analyses the asymptotic and finite sample implications of different types of nonstationary behavior among the dependent and explanatory variables in a linear spurious regression model. We study cases when the nonstationarity in the dependent and explanatory variables is deterministic...