We construct a state space model for measuring real economic activity in real time (e.g., minute by minute) using a variety of stock and flow data, observed at mixed frequencies. Our data set comprises macroeconomic and financial variables: GDP, IP, unemployment, stock and bond market data, and...

On the one hand, recently a number of theoretical models have highlighted the role of credit market frictions in propagating and amplifying macroeconomic shocks. On the other hand, it still seems an open question whether this role is quantitatively significant. Our paper tries to fill this gap....

We argue that the fiscal policies adopted early in World War I by the U.K. were responsible for its poor economic performance during the interwar period. In September 1915, the U.K. embarked on a set of non-tax-smoothing policies collectively known as the McKenna rule. The key dictum of the...

This paper studies the role of credit market development in an economy with credit frictions. I examine how the provision of credit in connection with collateral assets affects economic performance and the business cycle. In the framework of an economy in which credit constraints arise because...

We use a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy to assess the economic implications of higher vulnerability from extreme meteorological events. In particular, we consider the impact of climate change on ENSO/NAO cycles, and the implied variation on regional expected damages, due...

Alvarez and Jermann (2000) show that the constrained efficient allocations of endowment economies with complete markets and limited commitment can be decentralized with endogenous borrowing limits on the Arrow securities. In a model with capital accumulation, aggregate risk and competitive...

Remittance flows are quickly surpassing private capital flows and official aid in magnitude and rate of growth, making them the single most important form of income flows into developing and emerging economies. This paper uses a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model to investigate the...

This paper asks the question of whether the newly available TIPS yields data can help us achieve a better understanding of the real term structure and the inflation expectations. The yield differential between TIPS and comparable nominal coupon securities is not a direct measure of inflation...

This paper examines causes of banking crises. In particular, we try to explain why banks expand credits rapidly before the crises. We also seek for appropriate recapitalization policy to cope with a systemic banking crisis. To serve these purposes, we construct an agent-based simulation model...