The paper investigates how the interplay between business cycles and long-run growth shapes the dynamics of economies characterized by financial market imperfections. Most of standard economic literature has centered the analysis of decentralized economies on the representative agent hypothesis...

In this paper we present some contingent claim analysis’ models for the firm value. We focus on two different approaches: the structural (Merton) approach and a new one that treats the asset value as a claim on the firm’s securities. The non-observability of the assets’...

Using monthly data from 1926:01 to 2003:12 for the United States, this paper examines the predictability of real stock prices based on the dividend-price ratio. In particular, we focus on estimating and forecasting a nonlinear exponential smooth autoregressive model (ESTAR). One motivation for...

In this paper, we investigate the out-of-sample forecasting ability of a genetic program to approach the dynamic evolution of the Yen/US$ and Pound Sterling/US$ exchange rates, and verify whether the method can beat the random walk model. Later on, we use the predicted values to generate a...

The 1987 stock market crash, the LTCM debacle, the Asian Crisis, the bursting of the high technology Dot-Com bubble of 2001-2 with 30% losses of equity values, events such as 9/11 and sudden corporate collapses of the magnitude of Enron - have radically changed the view that extreme events have...

When one constructs long-term investment plan, one needs to consider the fact that long-term bonds are still exposed to inflation risk. This paper studies the intertemporal portfolio-consumption decision where the investment opportunities include "inflation-indexed bonds" -- a modern financial...

We investigate for evidence of complex-deterministic dynamics in financial returns time series. By combining the Surrogate Data Analysis inferential framework with the MG-GARCH (Kyrtsou and Terraza, 2003) modelling approach, we examine whether the sequences are characterized by aperiodic and...

We develop a model in which boundedly rational agents apply technical and fundamental analysis to identify trading signals in two different speculative markets. Whether an agent trades and, if so, in which market with which strategy depends on profit considerations. As it turns out, an ongoing...