The aim of the present work is to test the predictive power of the term spread in forecasting real economic growth rates and recession probabilities in Italy. According to the most recent literature, the relationship between the term spread and economic growth rates is modelled as a nonlinear...

A relevant issue in the procyclicality debate over Basel II is the type of rating which could be preferred from both an individual and an economy-wide point of view in the light of the relation between capital requirements and the business cycle. The objective of the present paper is to evaluate...