The goal of this paper is to develop formal techniques for analyzing the relative in-sample performance of two competing, misspecified models in the presence of possible data instability. The central idea of our methodology is to propose a measure of the models' local relative performance: the...

We propose a new Information Criterion for Impulse Response Function Matching estimators of the parameters of a structural model based on classical Minimum Distance estimation. The advantages of our procedure are that: (i) it improves the efficiency of the estimates of the model's deep...

This paper studies stylized empirical facts regarding the effects of unexpected changes in aggregate macroeconomic policies on consumers that are allowed to differ depending on their individual characteristics. In particular, we focus on fiscal shocks due to their important effects on consumers'...

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and world commodity price movements. Taking into account parameter instability, we demonstrate surprisingly robust evidence that exchange rates predict world commodity price movements, both in-sample and...