The goal of this paper is to develop formal techniques for analyzing the relative in-sample performance of two competing, misspecified models in the presence of possible data instability. The central idea of our methodology is to propose a measure of the models' local relative performance: the...

We propose a method for modifying a given density forecast in a way that incorporates the information contained in theory-based moment conditions. An example is "improving" the forecasts from atheoretical econometric models, such as factor models or Bayesian VARs, by ensuring that they satisfy...