We develop a dynamic model of sovereign default and renegotiation to study how expectations of default and debt restructuring in the near future affect the ex ante maturity structure of sovereign debts. This paper argues that the average maturity is shorter when a country is approaching...

Backus, Kehoe, and Kydland (International Real Business Cycles, JPE, 100(4),1992) documented several discrepancies between the observed post-war business cycles of developed countries and the predictions of a two-country, complete-market model. The main discrepancy termed as the “quantity...

Features of sovereign debts restructuring in 1980s and 1990s are quite different in two aspects. One is that the renegotiation periods are longer in 1980s than in 1990s, in spite of the fact that sovereign borrowing in 1980s is mainly bank loans with several big creditors, while in 1990s it is...

In this paper, I argue that demographic factors play a central role in accounting for the trade deficit experienced by the U.S. during the last three decades. The main idea is that cross-country demographic differentials lead to adjustments in savings and investments which are associated with...

We argue that emerging economies borrow short term due to the high risk premium charged by bondholders on long-term debt. First, we present a model where the debt maturity structure is the outcome of a risk sharing problem between the government and bondholders. By issuing long-term debt, the...

This paper examines the importance of productivity shocks in accounting for salient features of U.S. economic developments during the second half of the 1990s, including the surge in investment spending, the substantial deterioration of the trade balance, and the modest decline in inflation. We...