To establish that our model is a reasonable description of the data we estimate the model using Bayesian methods and then evaluate its fit along a number of standard dimensions. The Bayesian approach to estimating the model parameters is especially important for providing discipline on the...

In this paper we study whether policy makers should wait to intervene until a financial crisis strikes or rather act in a preemptive manner. We study this question in a relatively simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which crises are endogenous events induced by the presence of...

We examine the driving forces of G-7 business cycles. We decompose national business cycles into common and nation-specific components using a dynamic factor model. We also do this for driving variables found in business cycle models: productivity; measures of fiscal and monetary policy; the...

the model's response to news shocks in general.

News shocks about future increases in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) lead to a large and persistent drop in inflation and the Federal Funds rate while driving up the slope of the term structure of interest rates (Kurmann and Otrok, 2010). In this paper, we first show that a monetary DSGE model...

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, a new policy paradigm has emerged in which old-fashioned policies such as capital controls and other government distortions have become part of the standard policy toolkit (the so-called macro-prudential policies). On the wave of this seemingly...

This paper examines the impact of international trade on business cycle comovement using a unique dataset of sectoral output and trade flows. While the earlier studies employing aggregate data are certainly useful in understanding the broad impact of trade linkages on the transmission of...