We use asset returns to characterize the properties of the pricing kernel, including its volatility (measured by entropy) and time-dependence. Then we explore similar properties of a number of popular representative agent models: long-run risk, time-varying volatility and risk, several versions...

Asset pricing implications for business cycle analysis David Backus, Bryan Routledge, and Stanley Zin Although the stochastic growth model has become the benchmark for business cycle analysis, many of its implications for asset prices and returns are grossly counterfactual. For example, the...

and dynamic interaction between volatility and growth.

We explore the properties of Pareto optimal allocations when agents have heterogeneous recursive preferences. The dynamics of individual consumption growth reflect not just standard mean-variance tradeoffs as in the expected-utility model, but also tradeoffs involving the timing of the...

that central banks incur for implementing Taylor rule type policies.

We quantify the sources of risk in currency returns as a first step toward understanding the returns to currency speculation. To do this, we develop and estimate an empirical model of exchange rate dynamics using daily data for four currencies relative to the US dollar: the Australian dollar,...

Counterfactual analysis uses the disentangled regimes in policy and shocks to understand their importance for the great moderation. The low-volatility regime of exogenous shocks during the last two decades plays an important role, while monetary policy contributes by trading off asymmetric...

Is monetary policy effective? We rely on the evidence from the term structure of inflation expectations implicit in the nominal yields and survey forecasts of inflation to address this question. We construct a model that accommodates forecasts over multiple horizons from multiple surveys and...

In this paper we are concerned with what drives international capital flows. The estimated spectra of net foreign asset positions show that they are driven almost entirely by low frequency components which argues against many of the dire warnings that are issued about short term adjustments in...