This paper uses a modified version of the DSGE model estimated in Smets and Wouters (2003) to generate a prior distribution for a vector autoregression, following the approach in Del Negro and Schorfheide (2003). This DSGE-VAR is fitted to Euro area data on GDP, consumption, investment, nominal...

For decades economists have searched for the sources of business cycle fluctuations. Early business cycle research focused on leading and lagging indicators and, while many of these are still employed today, they fail to provide insight into the sources of the fluctuations. Despite recent...

We use the neoclassical growth framework to model international capital flows in a world with exogenous demographic change. We compare model implications and actual current account data and find that the model explains a small but significant fraction of capital flows between OECD countries, in...

In this paper we document the properties of revisions to macroeconomic data in the US and analyze the implications of these properties in the context of a general equilibrium model. We find that the revisions to major macroeconomic variables such as output and productivity growth are large and...

The path of economic development for rich industrialized countries is typically to transit from farming to manufacturing to services. To do so requires corresponding productivity gains to pull the economy from one sector to the next one. For example, the US and Japan developed their...

Every month thousands of people become employed or unemployed. In the same month thousands of people decide to enter or exit the labor force. Although most of the literature focuses primarily on job flows, several recent empirical and theoretical studies suggest that, in order to completely...

In this paper, we construct the first constant-quality aggregate price index for the stock of residential land in the United States. In the process, we uncover four main results: (a) since 1970, residential land prices have risen nearly twice as fast, but also have been twice as volatile as...

I provide empirical evidence that badly governed firms respond more to aggregate shocks than do well governed firms. I build a simple model where managers are prone to over-invest and where shareholders are more willing to tolerate such a behavior in good times. The model successfully explains...

This paper reexamines the role of open market operations for short-run effects of monetary policy in a New Keynesian framework. The central bank supplies money in exchange for securities that are discounted with the short-run nominal interest rate, while money demand is induced by a liquidity...