We develop a dynamic model of sovereign default and renegotiation to study how expectations of default and debt restructuring in the near future affect the ex ante maturity structure of sovereign debts. This paper argues that the average maturity is shorter when a country is approaching...

We study a standard quantitative model of sovereign default in which the government in a small open economy (SMO) decides how much to save and whether to default on its debt. In contrast with previous quantitative studies, we do not assume that a defaulting country is exogenously excluded from...

Features of sovereign debts restructuring in 1980s and 1990s are quite different in two aspects. One is that the renegotiation periods are longer in 1980s than in 1990s, in spite of the fact that sovereign borrowing in 1980s is mainly bank loans with several big creditors, while in 1990s it is...

Several recent defaults on sovereign debt were accompanied by major banking crises in the defaulting countries. I argue that the banking crises, triggered by the defaults, were due to inadequate prudential regulations, which did not recognize the riskiness of the government debt. I use a simple...

Emerging market economies typically experience procyclical public expenditures and private consumption, countercyclical default risk, interest rate spreads, current account and inflation tax rates as well as and higher volatility in consumption than in output. We develop a quantitative...

I analyze how lack of commitment affects the maturity structure of sovereign debt. Ex post, the government trades off the gains from default induced redistribution against the cost of defaulting. Ex ante, the government issues debt of various maturities to raise an exogenous revenue requirement....

Governments in emerging markets often behave like a "tormented insurer", trying to use non-state-contingent debt instruments to avoid sharp adjustments in their payments to private agents despite sharp fluctuations in public revenues. In the data, their ability to sustain debt is inversely...

Backus, Kehoe, and Kydland (International Real Business Cycles, JPE, 100(4),1992) documented several discrepancies between the observed post-war business cycles of developed countries and the predictions of a two-country, complete-market model. The main discrepancy termed as the “quantity...