This paper uses a modified version of the DSGE model estimated in Smets and Wouters (2003) to generate a prior distribution for a vector autoregression, following the approach in Del Negro and Schorfheide (2003). This DSGE-VAR is fitted to Euro area data on GDP, consumption, investment, nominal...

Are excess returns predictable and if so, what does this mean for investors? Previous literature has tended toward two polar viewpoints: that predictability is useful only if the statistical evidence for it is incontrovertible, or that predictability should affect portfolio choice, even if the...

This paper employs the one-sector Real Business Cycle model as a testing ground for four different procedures to estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The procedures are: 1) Maximum Likelihood, with and without measurement errors and incorporating Bayesian priors, 2)...

Economies respond differently to aggregate shocks that reduce output. While some countries rapidly recover their pre-crisis trend, others stagnate. Recent studies provide empirical support for a connection between aggregate growth and plant dynamics through their effect on productivity: the...

In this paper I estimate unobserved labor-generated knowledge spillovers within and among six large macroeconomic sectors covering the totality of the US civilian economy from 1948 to 1991. Unobserved spillovers are identified by observed TFP changes measured using Dale Jorgenson’s...

We introduce a joint model of labor market search and firm size dynamics to explain the differential in labor market and productivity outcomes between the U.S. and the European Union. At the core, our model is a hybrid of the labor market search model by Mortensen and Pissarides (1994) and the...