This paper develops and estimates a macro-finance model that combines a canonical affine no-arbitrage finance specification of the term structure with standard macroeconomic aggregate relationships for output and inflation. From this new empirical formulation, we obtain several important...

Infinitely repeated games have been used to argue that reputation can substitute for commitment in monetary policymaking. A drawback of this approach is that it implies multiple equilibria. I argue that nominal asset prices can be used as an equilibrium selection mechanism. First, I introduce...

We study how the use of judgement or add-factors in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which "exuberance equilibria" exist in standard macroeconomic environments. These equilibria may...

Expected exchange rate changes are determined by interest rate differentials across countries and risk premia, while unexpected changes are driven by innovations to macroeconomic variables, which are amplified by time-varying market prices of risk. In a model where short rates respond to the...

We consider the appropriate objective for monetary stabilization policy in a canonical “new Keynesian†model with staggered pricing of the kind proposed by Calvo (1983), but with a complete DSGE structure of the kind presented by Yun (1996) or Woodford (2003). It is shown that under...

We study macroeconomic stabilization when monetary and fiscal policies interact via their effects on output and inflation and the monetary authority is more conservative than the fiscal. We find that monetary-fiscal interactions result in poor macroeconomic stabilization. With both policies...

In standard monetary models nominal interest rates should be decreased in response to a switch to a lower inflation target. This paper considers this interaction between inflation and nominal interest rates in a dynamic model of liquidity. In a repeated Diamond&Dybvig economy a financial...