Showing 1 - 10 of 18
Die Prognose der Insolvenzgefährdung von Unternehmen anhand statistischer Methodik war und ist eine bedeutende Aufgabe … Jahresabschlüssen von Kapitalgesellschaften abgeleitet werden können. In der aktuellen Praxis der empirischen Insolvenz- und …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860996
Predicting default probabilities is important for firms and banks to operate successfully and to estimate their specific risks. There are many reasons to use nonlinear techniques for predicting bankruptcy from financial ratios. Here we propose the so called Support Vector Machine (SVM) to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005861245
In the era of Basel II a powerful tool for bankruptcy prognosis isvital for banks. The tool must be precise but also easily adaptable tothe bank's objections regarding the relation of false acceptances (TypeI error) and false rejections (Type II error). We explore the suitabil-ity of Smooth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860752
This paper proposes a rating methodology that is based on a non-linear classification method, the support vector machine, and a non-parametric technique for mapping rating scores into probabilities of default. We give an introduction to underlying statistical models and represent the results of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005861009
, which ignore certain sources of uncertainty, may yield misleadingly sure predictions. Totest the forecast ability of our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860485
to forecast nonlinear ARMA model based simulated data and real data of financial returns. The forecasting ability of the … focus on fit in-sample, but SVR considers both fit and forecast out-of-sample which endows SVR with an excellent forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860490
Measuring and modeling financial volatility is the key to derivative pricing, asset allocation and risk management. The recent availability of high-frequency data allows for refined methods in this field. In particular, more precise measures for the daily or lower frequency volatility can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860514
Stock picking is the field of financial analysis that is of particular interest for many professional investors and researchers. In this study stock picking is implemented via binary classification trees. Optimal tree size is believed to be the crucial factor in forecasting performance of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860532
approach over different forecast horizons. We find that sales comparison values provide better long-term forecaststhan cost …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860577
employ autoregressive models (AR) to forecast principal components which, in turn, are used to forecast swap rates. Arguing …. To evaluate ex-ante forecastingperformance for particular rates, different forecast features such as mean squared errors … offers additional forecast accuracy in terms of directional accuracy and big hit ability. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860579