Showing 1 - 10 of 24
A test for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process with a possible shift and broken linear trend is proposed. The break point is assumed to be known. The setup is a VAR process for cointegrated variables. The tests are not likelihood ratio tests but the deterministic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005861271
Controllability of longer-term interest rates requires that the persis-tence of their deviations from the central bank's policy rate (i.e. thepolicy spreads) remains suffciently low. This paper applies fractionalintegration techniques to assess the persistence of policy spreads ofeuro area money...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005865428
This paper proposes a novel approach to the combination of conditional covariancematrix forecasts based on the use of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Itis shown how the procedure can be generalized to deal with large dimensional systemsby means of a two-step strategy. The finite sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005865451
volatility and long-term trend are driven by an external stochastic factor process. The robust utility functional is defined in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008939751
autoregressive processes revealing time-varying stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities capture risk inherent to the term … additional determinants of future excess returns. Finally, we illustrate that the yield and volatility factors are closely …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860483
Information ows across international financial markets typically occur within hours, making volatility spillover appear … contemporaneous in daily data. Such simultaneous transmission of variances is featured by the stochastic volatility model developed in … heteroscedasticity of the structural volatility innovations, and estimation takes place in an appropriately specified state space setup …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860498
In this paper, we study the dynamic interdependencies between high-frequency volatility, liquidity demand as well as …. Liquidity is causal for future volatility but not vice versa. Furthermore, trade sizes are negatively driven bypast trading …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860504
Measuring and modeling financial volatility is the key to derivative pricing, asset allocation and risk management. The … the daily or lower frequency volatility can be obtained by summing over squared high-frequency returns. In turn, this so …{called realized volatility can be used for more accurate model evaluation and description of the dynamic and distributional structure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860514
, especially on the BS implied volatility. Implied binomialtrees (IBT) models capture the variations of the implied volatility … known as \volatility smile". They provide a discrete approximation to the continuous risk neutral process for the underlying … Barle and Cakici (BC). After the formation of IBT we can estimate the implied local volatility and thestate price density …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860517
financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH … to forecast financial markets volatility. The real data in this study uses British Pound-US Dollar (GBP) daily exchange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860742