We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U.S., building on the Lee-Carter approach and extendingit in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying...

We present an object-oriented software framework allowing to specify, solve, and estimate nonlinear dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The implemented solution methods for finding the unknown policy function are the standard linearization around the deterministic steady state, and a...

We present a comprehensive framework for Bayesian estimation of structural nonlinear dynamic economic models on sparse grids. The Smolyak operator underlying the sparse grids approach frees global approximation from the curse of dimensionality and we apply it to a Chebyshev approximation of the...

We use a Bayesian dynamic factor model to measure Germanys pre WorldWar I economic activity. The procedure makes better use of existing time seriesdata than historical national accounting. To investigate industrializationwe propose to look at comovement between sectors. We find that...

We analyze the impact of short-run economic fluctuations on age-specific mortality usingBayesian time series econometrics and contribute to the debate on the procyclicality ofmortality. For the first time, we examine the differing consequences of economic changesfor all individual age classes....

In this paper, we give an overview of the state-of-the-art in the econometric literature on the modeling of so-called financial point processes. The latter are associated with the random arrival of specific financial trading events, such as transactions, quote updates, limit orders or price...

We propose a general class of Markov-switching-ARFIMA processes in order to combine strands of long memory and Markov-switching literature. Although the coverage of this class of models is broad, we show that these models can be easily estimated with the DLV algorithm proposed. This algorithm...

This paper investigates the finite sample properties of confidence intervals for structural vector error correction models (SVECMs) with long-run identifying restrictions on the impulse response functions. The simulation study compares methods that are frequently used in applied SVECM studies...

We propose a new nonlinear classification method based on a Bayesian "sum-of-trees" model, the Bayesian Additive Classification Tree (BACT), whichextends the Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) method into the classification context. Like BART, the BACT is a Bayesian nonparametric...

A stronger long-term orientation is considered a competitive advantage of family firms relative to non-family firms. In this study, we use panel data of U.S. firms and analyze this proposition. Our findings are surprising. Only in when the family is involved in the management of the firm is the...