This paper addresses the question of the British state of convergence towards the Euro area, compared to the USA. Economically, the analysis is based on dependences in the money and capital markets, namely the uncovered interest parity (UIP) and the expectation hypothesis of the term structure...

A good description of the dynamics of interest rates is crucial to price derivatives and to hedge corresponding risk. Interest rate modelling in an unstable macroeconomic context motivates one factor models with time varying parameters. In this paper, the local parameter approach is introduced...

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...

The relation between the ECB’s main refinancing (MRO) rates and the money market is key for the monetary transmission process in the euro area. This paper investigates how money market rates respond to the new information revealed by MRO auctions. Our results confirm a stabilizing level...

Imposing the natural rate hypothesis (NRH) can dramatically alter the determinacy bounds on monetary policy by closing the output gap in the long run. I show that the hypothesis eliminates any role for the output gap in determinacy and renders the conditions for determinacy identical for all...

This paper examines the preferred-habitat theory under time-varying risk aversion. The predicted positive relation between the term spread and relative supply of longer-term debt is stronger when risk aversion is high. To capture this effect, a time-varying coefficient model is introduced and...

The infinite-dimensional sticky-information Phillips curve is cast as a finite-dimensional timevarying system of difference equations in order to directly assess determinacy in the model with demand given by the forward-looking IS equation and monetary policy by an interest rate rule. An...

We examine what are common factors that determine systematic credit risk and estimate and interpret the common risk factors. We also compare the contributions of common factors in explaining the changes of credit default swap (CDS) spreads during the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis period....

The present paper sheds further light on a well-known (alleged) violation of the expec- tations hypothesis of the term structure (EHT) - the frequent finding of unit roots in interest rate spreads. We show that the EHT implies (i) that the nonstationarity stems from the holding premium, which is...