This paper proposes a new econometric approach to disentangle two distinct response patterns of the yield curve to monetary policy announcements. Based on cojumps in intraday tick-data of a short and long term interest rate, we develop a day-wise test that detects the occurrence of a significant...

We establish estimation methods to determine co-jumps in multivariate high-frequency data with nonsynchronous observations and market microstructure noise. The ex-post quadratic covariation of the signal part, which is modeled by an Itˆo-semimartingale, is estimated with a locally adaptive...

This paper investigates the information content of the Norges Bank’s key rate projections. Wavelet spectrum estimates provide the basis for estimating jump probabilities of short- and long-term interest rates on monetary policy announcement days before and after the introduction of key rate...

This paper proposes an ESTAR modeling framework to analyze the anchoring of inflation expectations. Anchoring criteria are empirical estimates of a market implied inflation target as well as the strength of the anchor that holds expectations at the target. Results from daily financial market...

The publication of a projected path of future policy decisions by central banks is a controversially debated method to improve monetary policy guidance. This paper suggests a new approach to evaluate the impact of the guidance strategy on the predictability of monetary policy. Using the example...

We quantify spillovers of inflation expectations between the United States (US) and Euro Area (EA) based on break-even inflation (BEI) rates. In contrast to previous studies, we model US and EA BEI rates jointly in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The SVAR approach allows to...

We consider estimation of the quadratic (co)variation of a semimartingale from discrete observations which are irregularly spaced under high-frequency asymptotics. In the univariate setting, results from Jacod (2008) are generalized to the case of irregular observations. In the two-dimensional...

The article is devoted to the nonparametric estimation of the quadratic covariation of non-synchronously observed Itô processes in an additive microstructure noise model. In a high-frequency setting, we aim at establishing an asymptotic distribution theory for a generalized multiscale estimator...

In this article we focus on estimating the quadratic covariation of continuous semimartingales from discrete observations that take place at asynchronous observation times. The Hayashi-Yoshida estimator serves as synchronized realized covolatility for that we give our own distinct illustration...

We propose localized spectral estimators for the quadratic covariation and the spot covolatility of diffusion processes which are observed discretely with additive observation noise. The eligibility of this approach to lead to an appropriate estimation for time-varying volatilities stems from an...