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We analyze a consistent two-factor model for pricing temperature derivatives that incorporates the forward looking information available in the market by specifying a model for the dynamics of the complete meteorological forecast curve. The two-factor model is a generalization of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145246
In this paper we investigate price and volatility risk originating in link- ages between energy and agricultural commodity prices in Germany and study their dynamics over time. We propose an econometric approach to quantify the volatility and correlation risk structure, which has a large impact...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145247
properties. Despite recent innovations in finan- cial and insurance markets, many markets remain incomplete and there exists an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010658762
Electricity load forecasts are an integral part of many decision-making pro- cesses in the electricity market. However, most literature on electricity load forecasting concentrates on deterministic forecasts, neglecting possibly impor- tant information about uncertainty. A more complete picture...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011184071
This paper is intended as a guide to building insurance risk (loss) models. A typical model for insurance risk, the so … distribution. The collective risk model is often used in health insurance and in general insurance, whenever the main risk … components are the number of insurance claims and the amount of the claims. It can also be used for modeling other non-insurance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011184074
On the temperature derivative market, modeling temperature volatility is an important issue for pricing and hedging. In order to apply pricing tools of nancial mathematics, one needs to isolate a Gaussian risk factor. A conventional model for temperature dynamics is a stochastic model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008776044
Many business people such as farmers and financial investors are affected by indirect losses caused by scarce or abundant rainfall. Because of the high potential of insuring rainfall risk, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) began trading rainfall derivatives in 2011. Compared to temperature...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010603543
Forecasting based pricing of Weather Derivatives (WDs) is a new approach in valuation of contingent claims on nontradable underlyings. Standard techniques are based on historical weather data. Forward-looking information such as meteorological forecasts or the implied market price of risk (MPR)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010607145
Recently the topic of global warming has become very popular. The literature has concentrated its attention on the evidence of such eect, either by detecting regime shifts or change points in time series. The majority of these methods are designed to nd shifts in mean, but only few can do this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010543378
insurance contracts. We show that in a competitive insurance market with heterogeneous risk averse farmers, there is … simultaneous demand for both insurance contracts. Moreover, the introduction of multi-year contracts enhances the market … penetration of insurance products. Using U.S. corn yield data, we empirically assess the potential of multi-year crop insurance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011277294