Multiplicative error models (MEM) became a standard tool for modeling conditional durations of intraday transactions, realized volatilities and trading volumes. The parametric estimation of the corresponding multivariate model, the so-called vector MEM (VMEM), requires a specification of the...

The Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) method can enhance Bayesian DSGE estimation by sampling from a posterior distribution spanning potentially nonnested models with parameter spaces of different dimensionality. We use the method to jointly sample from an ARMA process of unknown...

The present study addresses the economic interpretation of stock market volatility. We argue that its character is inherently ambivalent, being considered as an indicator of either information flow or uncertainty.We discriminate between these views by measuring the fraction of price changes that...

Information flows across international financial markets typically occur within hours, making volatility spillover appear contemporaneous in daily data. Such simultaneous transmission of variances is featured by the stochastic volatility model developed in this paper, in contrast to usually...

Equity basket correlation is an important risk factor. It characterizes the strength of linear dependence between assets and thus measures the degree of portfolio diversification. It can be estimated both under the physical measure from return series, and under the risk neutral measure from...

The present paper analyses interactions between the foreign exchange, money and stock markets in Asian Pacific countries from 1999 till 2006. Considering influences on financial market volatility, the estimations are carried out in multivariate EGARCH models using structural residuals. This...

The present paper embarks on an analysis of interactions between the US and Euroland in the capital, foreign exchange, money and stock markets from 1994 until 2006. Considering influences on financial market volatility, the estimations are carried out in multivariate EGARCH models using...

This paper concerns goodness-of-fit test for semiparametric copula models. Our contribution is two-fold: we first propose a new test constructed via the comparison between "in-sample" and "out-of-sample" pseudolikelihoods, which avoids the use of any probability integral transformations. Under...

We propose the realized systemic risk beta as a measure for financial companies’ contribution to systemic risk given network interdependence between firms’ tail risk exposures. Conditional on statistically pre-identified network spillover effects and market and balance sheet information, we...

We propose a methodology for forecasting the systemic impact of financial institutions in interconnected systems. Utilizing a five-year sample including the 2008/9 financial crisis, we demonstrate how the approach can be used for timely systemic risk monitoring of large European banks and...