Showing 1 - 10 of 191
A flexible statistical approach for the analysis of time-varying dynamics of transaction data on financial markets is here applied to intra-day trading strategies. A local adaptive technique is used to successfully predict financial time series, i.e., the buyer and the seller-initiated trading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010895342
We propose a local adaptive multiplicative error model (MEM) accommodating timevarying parameters. MEM parameters are adaptively estimated based on a sequential testing procedure. A data-driven optimal length of local windows is selected, yielding adaptive forecasts at each point in time....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010544325
Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test for independence, Fisher’s exact test or the Pesaran and Timmerman (1992) test for market timing. These tests are asymptotically valid for serially independent observations....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005652761
volatility predictor, the results of an application to tactical asset allocation are presented. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207941
With the recent availability of high-frequency Financial data the long range dependence of volatility regained … researchers' interest and has lead to the consideration of long memory models for realized volatility. The long range diagnosis of … volatility, however, is usually stated for long sample periods, while for small sample sizes, such as e.g. one year, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005677947
Modelling the dynamics of credit derivatives is a challenging task in finance and economics. The recent crisis has shown that the standard market models fail to measure and forecast financial risks and their characteristics. This work studies risk of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011277297
I compare the performance of solution methods in solving a standard real business cycle model with labor market search frictions. Under the conventional calibration, the model is solved by the projection method using the Chebyshev polynomials as its basis, and the perturbation methods up to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010929781
forecasts is not considered. Thus, important knowledge used by market participants is ignored in theory. By extending a standard …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008492665
In this paper, we provide new empirical evidence on order submission activity and price impacts of limit orders at NASDAQ. Employing NASDAQ TotalView-ITCH data, we find that market participants dominantly submit limit orders with sizes equal to a round lot. Most limit orders are canceled almost...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009275679
Despite their importance in modern electronic trading, virtually no systematic empirical evidence on the market impact of incoming orders is existing. We quantify the short-run and long-run price effect of posting a limit order by proposing a high-frequency cointegrated VAR model for ask and bid...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008577794