Showing 1 - 10 of 186
We propose a general class of Markov-switching-ARFIMA processes in order to combine strands of long memory and Markov-switching literature. Although the coverage of this class of models is broad, we show that these models can be easily estimated with the DLV algorithm proposed. This algorithm...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005678044
characterized by volatility clustering and asymmetry. Also revealed as a stylized fact is Long memory or long range dependence in … market volatility, with significant impact on pricing and forecasting of market volatility. The implication is that models … that accomodate long memory hold the promise of improved long-run volatility forecast as well as accurate pricing of long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005678005
The volatility implied by observed market prices as a function of the strike and time to maturity form an Implied … Volatility Surface (IV S). Practical applications require reducing the dimension and characterize its dynamics through a small … investigating long range dependence in the factor loadings series. Our result reveals that shocks to volatility persist for a very …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005678046
extreme value theory. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of our methods turns out to be clearly superior to different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008629520
Measuring and modeling financial volatility is the key to derivative pricing, asset allocation and risk management. The … the daily or lower frequency volatility can be obtained by summing over squared high-frequency returns. In turn, this so …-called realized volatility can be used for more accurate model evaluation and description of the dynamic and distributional structure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005678039
volatility predictor, the results of an application to tactical asset allocation are presented. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207941
Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test for independence, Fisher’s exact test or the Pesaran and Timmerman (1992) test for market timing. These tests are asymptotically valid for serially independent observations....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005652761
This paper concerns goodness-of-fit test for semiparametric copula models. Our contribution is two-fold: we first propose a new test constructed via the comparison between "in-sample" and "out-of-sample" pseudolikelihoods, which avoids the use of any probability integral transformations. Under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010691293
In this paper, we study the dynamic interdependencies between high-frequency volatility, liquidity demand as well as …. Liquidity is causal for future volatility but not vice versa. Furthermore, trade sizes are negatively driven by past trading …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005677925
A new test for constant correlation is proposed. Based on the bivariate Student-t distribution, this test is derived as Lagrange multiplier (LM) test. Whereas most of the traditional tests (e.g. Jennrich, 1970, Tang, 1995 and Goetzmann, Li & Rouwenhorst, 2005) specify the unknown correlations as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005652781