Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioral model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during...

In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One...

A numerical method for a class of Itô stochastic differential equations with a finite delay term is introduced. The method is based on the forward Euler approximation and is parameterised by its time step. Weak convergence with respect to a class of smooth test functionals is established by...

Results are presented on the stability of solutions of stochastic delay differential equations with multiplicative noise and of convergent numerical solutions obtained by a a method of Euler-Maruyama type. An attempt is made to provide a fairly self-contained presentation. A basic concept of the...

A linear differential equation with infinite delay is considered in the generalized form as an integral equation. As usually, the function space ß of the admissible initial conditions is only described axiomatically. Merely using this abstract description the long time behavior of the solutions...