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Estimation and testing for varying coefficients in additive models with marginal integration

Yang, Lijian; Härdle, Wolfgang; Park, Byeong U. - 2002

We propose marginal integration estimation and testing methods for the coefficients of varying coefficient multivariate … regression model. Asymptotic distribution theory is developed for the estimation method which enjoys the same rate of convergence … as univariate function estimation. For the test statistic, asymptotic normal theory is established. These theoretical …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009627286

Lag selection in subset VAR models with an application to a US monetary system

Brüggemann, Ralf; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 2000

Alternative modeling strategies for specifying subset VAR models are considered. It is shown that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to sequentially eliminating lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. A...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583885

Fractional cointegration and tests of present value models

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

This paper tests the validity of Present Value (PV) models of stock prices by employing a two-step strategy for testing the null hypothesis of no cointegration against alternatives which are fractionally cointegrated. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the power and size...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582383

Local power of likelihood ratio tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process

Saikkonen, Pentti; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 1997

Likelihood ratio (LR) tests for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process have been developed under different assumptions regarding deterministic terms. For instance, nonzero mean terms and linear trends have been accounted for in some of the tests. In this paper we provide...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009659070

Trend adjustment prior to testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process

Saikkonen, Pentti; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 1997

Testing the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive process which may have a deterministic linear trend is considered. Previous proposals for dealing with such a situation are either to allow for a deterministic trend term in computing a suitable test statistic or else remove the linear...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009659627

Order selection in testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process

Lütkepohl, Helmut; Saikkonen, Pentti - 1997

The impact of the choice of the lag length on tests for the number of cointegration relations in a vector autoregressive (VAR) process is investigated. It is shown that the asymptotic distribution of likelihood ratio (LR) tests for the cointegrating rank remains unchanged if the true data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009660377

Semiparametric bootstrap approach to hypothesis tests and confidence intervals for the hurst coefficient

Hall, Peter; Härdle, Wolfgang; Kleinow, Torsten; … - 1999

the price of a commodity, currency or similar quantity. Interval estimation and hypothesis testing for H are central to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581110

Backtesting beyond VaR

Härdle, Wolfgang; Stahl, Gerhard - 1999

VaR models are related to statistical forecast systems. Within that framework different forecast tasks including Value-at-Risk and shortfall are discussed and motivated. A backtesting method based on the shortfall is developed and applied to VaR forecasts of areal portfolio. The analysis shows...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582401

On the reliability of chow type test for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models

Candelon, Bertrand; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 2000

The small sample properties of two types of Chow tests are investigated in the context of multiple time series models. It is found that the tests may have substantially distorted size if the sample size is not large relative to the number of parameters in the model under study. In particular the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612028

Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process

Lütkepohl, Helmut; Saikkonen, Pentti; Trenkler, Carsten - 2000

The properties of a range of maximum eigenvalue and trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive process are compared. The tests are alilikelihood ratio type tests and operate under different assumptions regarding the deterministic part of the data generation process. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612040