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Lag selection in subset VAR models with an application to a US monetary system

Brüggemann, Ralf; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 2000

Alternative modeling strategies for specifying subset VAR models are considered. It is shown that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to sequentially eliminating lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. A...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583885

A fractionally integrated model with a mean shift for the US and the UK real oil prices

Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

In this article we model the log of the U.S. and the U.K. real oil prices in terms of fractionally integrated processes with a mean shift. We use different versions of the tests of Robinson (1994), which have standard null and local limit distributions. The results indicate that if we model the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611543

Modeling the US short-term interest rate by mixture autoregressive processes

Lanne, Markku; Saikkonen, Pentti - 2000

A new kind of mixture autoregressive model with GARCH errors is introduced and applied to the U.S. short-term interest rate. According to the diagnostic tests developed in the paper and further informal checks the model is capable of capturing both of the typical characteristics of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612047

A class of Health-Jarrow-Morton models in which the unbiased expectations hypothesis holds

Riedel, Frank - 1997

The unbiased expectations hypothesis states that forward rates are unbiased estimates for future short rates. Cox, Ingersoll and Ross [1] conjectured that this hypothesis should be inconsistent with the absence of arbitrage possibilities. Using the framework of Heath, Jarrow and Morton [4] we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009632605

Finance, investment, and firm value in Germany and the US : a comparative analysis

Nowak, Eric - 1998

Germany and the United States are generally seen as the two competing systems of corporate governance. In search for a comparative welfare analysis of the financial systems, we are interested in (i) the aggregate value-added of corporate investments in the two countries and in (ii) the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578016

The response of long-term interest rates to news about monetary policy actions : empirical evidence for the US and Germany

Nautz, Dieter; Wolters, Jürgen - 1998

We reexamine the expectations theory of the term structure focusing on the question how monetary policy actions … tests of expectations theory this implication only requires rational expectations but not stationary risk premia. Therefore …, its empirical test sheds new light on the importance of expectations theory for the determinants of the term structure of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578577

On the (nonlinear) relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and trade : an investigation of US trade figures in the Group of Seven

Herwartz, Helmut (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001918978

Structural vector autoregressive models and monetary policy analysis

Holtemöller, Oliver - 2002

possibility is to adopt restrictions from economic theory. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the implications of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009620773

Low-probability insurance decisions : the role of concern

Schade, Christian D.; Kunreuther, Howard; Kaas, Klaus Peter - 2002

On the basis of a real high stakes insurance experiment with small probabilities of losses, we demonstrate that concern is a more important driver of WTP for insurance than subjective probability estimates when there is ambiguity surrounding the estimate. Concern is still important when...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621421

The false consensus effect disappears if representative information and monetary incentives are given

Engelmann, Dirk; Strobel, Martin - 1999

incentives for revealing the actual estimation of others' behavior. In each session and round sixteen subjects make a choice …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581106