To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...

VaR models are related to statistical forecast systems. Within that framework different forecast tasks including Value-at-Risk and shortfall are discussed and motivated. A backtesting method based on the shortfall is developed and applied to VaR forecasts of areal portfolio. The analysis shows...

We introduce a nonparametric smoothing procedure for nonparametric factor analaysis of multivariate time series. The asymptotic properties of the proposed procedures are derived. We present an application based on the residuals from the Fair macromodel. -- Factor Analysis ; Time Series ; Kernel...

We propose a nonparametric test for checking parametric hypotheses about the stationary density of weakly dependent observations. The test statistic is based on the L2-distance between a nonparametric and a smoothed version of a parametric estimate of the stationary density. It can be shown that...

Stochastic Volatility (SV) models are widely used in financial applications. To decide whether standard parametric restrictions are justified for a given dataset, a statistical test is required. In this paper, we develop such a test based on the linear state space representation. We provide a...

Let X be a continuous adapted process for which there exists an equivalent local martingale measure (ELMM). The minimal martingale measure P is the unique ELMM for X with the property that local P-martingales strongly orthogonal to the P-martingale part of X are also local P-martingales. We...