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To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...
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We derive an asymptotic theory of nonparametric estimation for an nonlinear transfer function model Z(t) = f (Xt) + Wt …
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